The Rising Threat of Hurricanes

The Rising Threat of Hurricanes

This article relates to Salvage This World

In Michael Farris Smith's novel Salvage This World, society is slowly breaking under the pressure of near-constant hurricanes. In real terms, it is already clear that storms have become increasingly powerful in recent years as a result of climate change. What will only become clear with time is whether this is the "new normal" or if this trajectory will continue into the future.

Rising temperatures are a major factor; the higher the temperature of air, the more water vapor it can hold. As both our oceans and the atmosphere get warmer, more steam evaporates from the surface of the Earth, gathering in the air as vapor. This results in greater levels of rainfall, particularly when vapor is whipped up by the powerful winds of a tropical storm. This is why, even if the total number of storms doesn't increase, their potential to cause damage will.

Rising sea levels (caused by ice melt and ocean warming) are exacerbating storm damage for coastal communities. A study conducted in the wake of Hurricane Sandy found that high sea levels at the time directly contributed to the amount of flooding, and that severe flooding will be four times more likely during future storms due to further sea level rise.

A warmer climate is also thought by some scientists to be responsible for a reduction in the speed of currents that move storms across land and sea. This is problematic because it means storms linger over an area for longer periods, allowing them additional time to cause damage.

Another worrying trend is the increase in severe sequential storms, or when the same area is hit by multiple major storms in rapid succession. Communities require time to drain flood waters, rescue displaced residents, repair damaged infrastructure and recover financially in the wake of a hurricane. This makes the cumulative impact of storms particularly dangerous, as communities are hit by further damage when they're already in a weakened, vulnerable state.

A study suggests that by the year 2100, back-to-back storms of this nature will be relatively common. As to how this is possible when the separate, aforementioned research shows the total number of storms may not increase, Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University, explains: "The storms are getting stronger. So even for the same number of storms, the number that are a real problem goes up because they are strengthening." Put simply, what are currently experienced as mild storms in the wake of major hurricanes have the potential to become full-blown hurricanes in their own right.

In summary, there are four main components required for a hurricane to form and gather strength, as identified by NASA. The first three are warm oceans, high levels of moisture in the air and existing disturbances to the climate (such as thunderstorms). The fourth is what is known as low vertical wind shear, which allows storms to stay intact as they move, rather than being pulled apart by changes in wind speed at different altitudes.

With global warming known to contribute directly to these factors, it feels like a recipe for certain disaster. This further emphasizes the current need for concerted action against climate change, minimizing the potential energy that can be harnessed by future storms.

Flooding in Marblehead, Massachusetts caused by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, by The Birkes (CC BY 2.0)

Filed under Nature and the Environment

This article relates to Salvage This World. It first ran in the May 17, 2023 issue of BookBrowse Recommends.