Excerpt of Radical Evolution by Joel Garreau
(Page 8 of 8)
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If my interest in that third scenarioPrevailmarks me as an optimist,
so be it. Heaven and Hell each might make a good summer blockbuster
movie, featuring amazing special effects. But they tend toward the same
story line: We are in for revolutionary change; there's not much we can
do about it; hang on tight; the end. The Prevail Scenario, if nothing
else, has better literary qualities. It is a story of struggle and
action and decision. In that way, it is also more faithful to history,
which can be read as a remarkably effective paean to the power of humans
to muddle through extraordinary circumstances.
Scenario work shows that the future is usually a combination of all the
stories you can construct to anticipate it. So I have done my best to
present entertaining but accurate depictions of people who hold wildly
different views. These are important thinkers and pioneers who deserve
to be taken seriously. Most of them. Some are in there because I just
couldn't resist telling their tales.
I hope this book serves as a road map and a guide to what we'll all be
living through, pointing out significant landmarks along the way, as well
as the turns and forks we can expect in the road. At the very least,
however, I hope Radical Evolution ends up saying something about
the present. George Orwell's most renowned work was entitled 1984
because he was really writing about 1948. Scenarios are always about the
present, really. The fact that they exist today teaches us something
about who we are, how we got that way, what makes us tick and, most of
all, where we're headed.
There's one thing that I've already learned writing this book.
If you have a choice between starting your story with a telekinetic
monkey or an attractive teenager in a wheelchair whose life might be
changed by the technology the monkey represents, you have to lead with
the bright young woman every time. For that's what people care about.
And that's why the focus of this book is not on engineeringit is on the
future of human nature.
Excerpted from Radical Evolution by Joel Garreau Copyright © 2005 by Joel
Garreau. Excerpted by permission of Doubleday, a division of Random
House, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be
reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the